Turkeys are a lot cheaper this Thanksgiving. Here’s why.

(NerdWallet) – If you’re looking for something to be grateful for, you can now include the cost of your Thanksgiving turkey on the list of things to be grateful for, in addition to the roof over your head and the gadget you’re reading this on.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), which discovered that the average cost of an 8–16-pound turkey was $1, says that. 27 per pound in August 2023 — a 22% decline from August 2022. The U. S. Department of Agriculture likewise lists the average price per pound for frozen, whole hen turkeys as $1. 27 in August 2023 — down just over 22% from $1. 64 in August 2022.

Prices for some turkey products dropped more sharply. For example, boneless and skinless male turkey breasts were 23% less expensive in August 2020 than they were at the same time last year, according to the AFBF.

How the avian flu could affect turkey availability

The supply chain involved in poultry production means that the timing of bird flu outbreaks influences the availability of specific varieties of turkeys, according to Martin.

Because producers can store frozen turkeys for up to a year before we see them on grocery shelves, Martin claims that there should be a “ample supply” of frozen turkeys. However, Martin says that because of the recent spike in influenza cases, fresh turkeys will be more difficult to find. That outbreak coincided with the end of the poultry industry’s “seasonal processing,” Martin says. Fresh turkeys should have been processed four to six weeks in advance if they were to be available in grocery stores by Thanksgiving.

The majority of the fresh stock has already been processed and is being kept refrigerated at this late date, according to Martin. “If you need a fresh bird, you should be ordering it now. Not later — now. ”.

Frozen turkeys are often cheaper than fresh turkeys. As of Nov. 3, the average cost of a frozen turkey is roughly $1.18 per pound in the northeastern U.S., compared to $1.69 per pound for fresh turkeys, according to the USDA’s most recent nationalturkeyretail report. (The USDA lists the prices of both fresh and frozen turkeys only in the northeast.)

Martin says that since small farms are unable to process and store turkeys as far back as larger producers can, you might not be able to get a fresh turkey from one this year.

“If you’re ordering from a local farm, you probably should’ve done it last month,” Martin says.

Below, you’ll find the listed online prices for frozen turkeys at several grocery stores. Note: Each product’s price per pound was checked in several U. S. cities, but prices may still vary in your area.

Target:

• $1.49 per pound: Butterball premium all-natural young turkey.
• Good, at 99 cents per pound.

Albertsons:

• $2.59 per pound: Butterball whole turkey.
• $2.49 per pound: Signature Farms whole turkey.
• $4. Signature Select fully cooked, hickory-smoked whole young turkey, $49.49 per pound

Publix:

• $69 cents per pound: Publix whole turkey Grade A.
• $2.99 per pound: Plainville whole turkey, raised without antibiotics.

Walmart:

• $1.28 per pound: Butterball premium whole turkey.
• 98 cents per pound: Shady Brook Farms whole young turkey.

Poultry industry ‘holding its breath’

In early 2022, what would become the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history started infecting wild and commercial flocks. Since then, it’s killed more than 60 million birds, and those shrinking supplies drove sharp increases in poultry and egg prices.

But the situation has improved. In September 2023, a little over 500 birds contracted the avian flu. That’s a dramatic decline from the same period one year earlier, when 8. 15 million birds contracted the flu, according to the AFBF.

“We’re holding our breath,” says Gregory P. Martin, an extension educator in poultry at Penn State University Extension, speaking about the broader poultry industry.

But while the situation is much better than last year, avian flu cases have started climbing again. There were 520 new avian influenza cases in September; in October, there were 1. 37 million new cases. So far in November, 1. 09 million new cases have been detected.

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