The recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, with a magnitude of 7.8 and 7.5, have left a trail of devastation, raising questions about the region’s susceptibility to such powerful tremors. This article delves into the science behind these earthquakes, exploring the geological factors that contribute to their frequency and intensity.
The Tectonic Dance:
Turkey and Syria lie in a geologically active zone where three tectonic plates converge: the Anatolian, Arabian, and Eurasian plates. This constant interaction creates immense pressure, leading to the build-up of energy that eventually releases in the form of earthquakes.
The Anatolian Plate’s Journey:
The Anatolian plate is pushed westward by the northward rise of the Arabian plate, and dragged westward. This movement is accommodated by two major faults: the North Anatolian Fault and the East Anatolian Fault. These faults act as boundaries between the plates, releasing energy through earthquakes.
The Domino Effect:
The recent earthquakes highlight the phenomenon of cascading earthquakes. The first tremor on the East Anatolian Fault triggered a second, larger earthquake on a nearby fault, demonstrating the interconnectedness of the region’s tectonic system.
Predicting the Unpredictable:
While scientists can identify areas prone to earthquakes, predicting the exact timing and magnitude remains a challenge. The current state of knowledge cannot provide precise forecasts, making preparedness and mitigation strategies crucial.
The Looming Threat for Istanbul:
The North Anatolian Fault, which runs close to Istanbul, is a major concern for the city’s 8 million inhabitants. Scientists anticipate a large earthquake to strike at some point, emphasizing the need for earthquake preparedness and infrastructure resilience.
Aftershocks and Triggered Earthquakes:
Following the main earthquake, aftershocks are expected, gradually decreasing in frequency and intensity over time. The second earthquake, however, is considered a “triggered earthquake,” caused by the energy released from the first tremor.
The Science of Fault Activation:
Earthquakes occur when faults, or fractures in the Earth’s crust, slip rapidly, releasing accumulated energy. This energy release causes the ground to shake, creating an earthquake. The recent event demonstrates how one earthquake can trigger another, highlighting the complex interplay of forces within the Earth’s crust.
Dynamic Triggering:
In some cases, the energy from a large earthquake can trigger tremors far away from the epicenter. This phenomenon, known as “dynamic triggering,” has been observed in previous earthquakes, suggesting that seismic waves can influence fault behavior at significant distances.
The Importance of Understanding Earthquakes:
The recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria underscore the importance of understanding earthquake science. By studying the geological factors and the behavior of faults, we can better prepare for future events, mitigate their impact, and save lives.
The earthquakes in Turkey and Syria serve as a stark reminder of the power of nature and the importance of earthquake preparedness. While predicting earthquakes remains a challenge, understanding the science behind them can help us build more resilient communities and mitigate the devastating consequences of these natural disasters.
This particular region was overdue for a big one
Most of the largest earthquakes in the past hundred years have been along the North Anatolian Fault.
But stress has been building along another major fault: the East Anatolian Fault. According to Patricia Martínez-Garzón, a seismologist at GFZ Potsdam, a German research center, that fault has previously experienced a few significant earthquakes. But more recently, there hasnt been as much activity.
“It was unusually quiet in the last century,” she says.
Some researchers had begun to suspect the fault was due for a major quake, according to Fatih Bulut, with the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute at Boğaziçi University in Istanbul. His research group and others had run computer models showing that this fault could have a magnitude 7.4 or greater earthquake.
“This is not a surprise for us,” Bulut tells NPR.
However, Ian Main, a seismologist at the University of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom, says that doesn’t mean they could predict with precision when a big one would strike. The time between big quakes on a fault can vary quite a bit in unpredictable ways, he says. “Theyre not like buses, they dont come along on a timetable. “.
And not all the shaking has occurred on this one fault. The Dead Sea Transform, another fault zone where the African, Anatolian, and Arabian plates converge, was affected by the initial earthquake. And a second, magnitude 7. Hours later, there was an additional earthquake on a nearby fault that wasn’t a part of the East Anatolian Fault but had been mapped.
“Its a pretty busy and complicated area with multiple fault systems,” Steckler says.
Earthquakes are common in Turkey and Syria
Turkey as a whole is being pushed aside by the Arabian Peninsula, which is a part of a tectonic plate that is moving northward into the Eurasian Plate.
“Arabia has slowly been moving north and has been colliding with Turkey, and Turkey is moving out of the way to the west,” says Michael Steckler of Columbia Universitys Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
For millennia, the region has experienced earthquakes caused by this tectonic shift, notably the one that destroyed Aleppo, Syria, in 1138. More recent quakes, such as the 1999 one that struck the city of İzmit, have killed many thousands.
Mondays quake is believed to be the most powerful that Turkey has seen in more than 80 years.
The Science Behind the Massive Turkey-Syria Earthquakes | WSJ
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