Thanksgiving Turkey Shortage 2023: What You Need to Know

Last year, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) devastated chicken flocks, with egg-laying hens bearing the brunt. The virus was one reason for the massive spike in egg prices. But this year, the virus got off to a slow start, allowing egg supplies to bounce back.

In February 2022, the United States was hit by the current HPAI outbreak, which devastated poultry farms throughout the nation. By the end of last year, about 60 million birds had been killed because of the virus. The current count stands at roughly 68 million, indicating that the disease has slowed down but is still present in 2023.

After a mostly virus-free start to the year, cases started ticking up in the fall. In the past month, Iowa farms have killed over 2. 8 million birds this season due to the virus. Earlier in November, an Ohio egg farm slaughtered over 1. 3 million birds because of the flu.

Chief of Ohio’s Division of Animal Health and State Veterinarian Dennis Summers told CNN that “nationally, we are seeing an uptick, again, in some commercial premises across the US.”

In the US, the deadly flu has been spreading as wild birds migrate south this fall. The virus can be brought into commercial operations if they land and mix with backyard flocks or if their droppings are dragged into chicken coops, he clarified. When that happens, the entire flock is eradicated to prevent the disease from spreading.

The fall migratory season lasts until about the end of the year, said Summers. Thus, the events of the next month or so will help determine the course of the virus this year and the number of additional farms that are impacted.

Summers stated, “All we’re hoping for is to hang on and get through this until [the flu] mutates to a non-pathogenic form.” “And then we can go from there. ”.

Egg supplies stay strong

There are plenty of eggs this year, despite the fact that egg farms have culled millions of chickens, according to Emily Metz, president and CEO of the American Egg Board, a farmer-funded organization committed to raising the demand for eggs in the United States.

“We’ve seen some small-scale outbreaks so far on a few egg farms,” she said. “Supply is strong, there’s plenty of eggs.” According to the USDA, egg production was up 4% in October compared to last year.

Prices have decreased, falling by roughly 22% in the 2012 months through October, as egg supplies have rebounded, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As of right now, a large number of the egg farms where the virus was found—and the birds killed—have concentrated on selling whites and yolks to food manufacturers rather than shell eggs to supermarkets, according to Ryan Hojnowski, an egg market analyst and reporter for Urner Barry, a publication that documents the market.

With these factors in mind, prices are unlikely to skyrocket again. Hojnowski stated, “As of right now, this second, it doesn’t seem like there’s a catalyst that is pointing toward a price action being anything like it was last year.” Still, he said, it’s a “very fluid situation. ”.

But when it comes to turkey, price hikes are on the horizon.

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Fear & Greed Index

So while breakfast is likely to stay cheap, get ready for more expensive turkey sandwiches.

Last year, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) devastated chicken flocks, with egg-laying hens bearing the brunt. The virus was one reason for the massive spike in egg prices. But this year, the virus got off to a slow start, allowing egg supplies to bounce back.

The current outbreak of HPAI hit the United States in February 2022, and ripped through poultry farms across the country. By the end of last year, about 60 million birds had been killed because of the virus. Today, the total tally is up to about 68 million, a sign that the disease has slowed, but not disappeared, in 2023.

After a mostly virus-free start to the year, cases started ticking up in the fall. In the past month, Iowa farms have killed over 2. 8 million birds this season due to the virus. Earlier in November, an Ohio egg farm slaughtered over 1. 3 million birds because of the flu.

Chief of Ohio’s Division of Animal Health and State Veterinarian Dennis Summers told CNN that “nationally, we are seeing an uptick, again, in some commercial premises across the US.”

In the US, the deadly flu has been spreading as wild birds migrate south this fall. The virus can be brought into commercial operations if they land and mix with backyard flocks or if their droppings are dragged into chicken coops, he clarified. When that happens, the entire flock is eradicated to prevent the disease from spreading.

The fall migratory season lasts until about the end of the year, said Summers. Thus, the events of the next month or so will help determine the course of the virus this year and the number of additional farms that are impacted.

Summers stated, “All we’re hoping for is to hang on and get through this until [the flu] mutates to a non-pathogenic form.” “And then we can go from there. ”.

Why are turkeys hard to find this year?

FAQ

Why are there no large turkeys this year?

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