In light of the Turkish president’s reelection to a five-year term, the Biden administration is anticipated to preserve or improve Turkey’s ties with the United States.
Despite Turkey’s declared goal to advance democracy, US-Turkish relations are predicted to remain stable, if not improve, for the duration of US President Joe Biden’s term.
With President Biden’s swearing-in as U. S. the president stated on January 20, 2021, that the administration will once more use the spread of democracy throughout the world as its main means of pursuing American foreign policy. This objective was also asserted in the administration’s National Security Strategy published in 2022.
The most visible representation of the policy was the U. S. -sponsored Summit for Democracies in 2023. Turkey was among the allies that the Biden team declined to invite to the summit.
The United States and Turkey, a significant NATO ally and Middle Eastern power, have a complicated relationship. Although the two countries have a long history of working together, tensions have increased recently due to things like Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems and its human rights record.
A Long and Winding Road: A Historical Perspective
The US-Turkey relationship dates back to the early 20th century, when the US supported Turkey’s independence struggle against the Ottoman Empire. After World War II, Turkey became a founding member of NATO and a vital strategic partner for the US during the Cold War.
However, the relationship has been strained at times. In the 1970s, the US imposed an arms embargo on Turkey due to its invasion of Cyprus. In recent years, tensions have flared over Turkey’s crackdown on dissent following a failed coup attempt in 2016, as well as its purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, which the US views as a threat to NATO security.
Areas of Cooperation and Discord: A Balancing Act
Despite these tensions, the US and Turkey still cooperate on a range of issues, including counterterrorism, energy security, and regional stability. Turkey is a key partner in the fight against ISIS and other terrorist groups, and it hosts a major US air base at Incirlik.
However, the two countries also disagree on several key issues. Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems has led to US sanctions, and the US has also criticized Turkey’s human rights record. Turkey, in turn, has accused the US of supporting Kurdish separatists in Syria and of failing to extradite Fethullah Gulen, whom Turkey blames for the 2016 coup attempt.
The Future of the US-Turkey Relationship: An Uncertain Path
The future of the US-Turkey relationship is uncertain. The two countries face significant challenges, but they also have a strong foundation of cooperation. Whether they can overcome their differences and build a stronger partnership remains to be seen.
Key Takeaways: A Glimpse into the Complexities
- The US and Turkey have a long and complex relationship with periods of both cooperation and tension.
- The two countries are NATO allies and cooperate on issues such as counterterrorism and regional stability.
- However, they disagree on issues such as Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems and its human rights record.
- The future of the US-Turkey relationship is uncertain, but the two countries have a strong foundation of cooperation.
Additional Considerations: A Deeper Dive
- The US-Turkey relationship is affected by domestic politics in both countries.
- The rise of populism and nationalism in both countries has made it more difficult to maintain a strong relationship.
- The two countries need to find ways to overcome their differences and build a stronger partnership.
There have been tense moments and lengthy periods of collaboration in the complicated relationship between the US and Turkey. Although the two nations have a solid foundation of cooperation, they also face significant challenges. It remains to be seen if they can put aside their differences and forge a stronger alliance.
An alignment of agency
Many believed that an opposition victory would lead to better relations between Ankara, Washington, Europeans, and the Middle East. The expectation of significant shifts in Turkish policies was overblown. There is also reason to expect Mr. Erdogan to adopt very similar policies.
Even with a strong popular mandate, President Erdogan faces significant challenges at home, including national recovery from the recent earthquake and staggering inflation. Turkey can ill afford foreign adventures that add to the nation’s woes. Conversely, the country needs foreign investment, trade and international economic partnerships to deliver growth.
With the election in the rearview mirror, the U. S. must be realistic and recognize that Turkish and American interests align, or at least do not directly conflict, in a number of areas:
Russia. Turkey will never completely isolate Russia or break relations. That said, Ankara has never had a trusted relationship with Moscow, nor do prospects exist for a partnership. Indeed, Turkey views membership in NATO as vital to its national interests, an insurance card against Russian expansion.
The Black Sea. Despite Turkey’s intransigence, the 1936 Montreux Convention, which grants Ankara authority over military ship access into the Black Sea, should be left intact to allow unrestricted commercial traffic and the safety of underwater cables and pipelines. Though it will likely be more open to cooperation among the littoral states to safeguard commercial activity in the air, sea, and below the surface, Ankara is still wary of a larger NATO presence in the Black Sea.
Middle Corridor. Europe and the United States would benefit from the project of building supply-chain, transportation, and energy corridors from the Caucasus to the Central Asian countries. S. S. and Turkey equally well. A key instrument for cooperation between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan is the Organization of Turkic States, of which Ankara is a member.
Greece. The U. S. is keenly interested in improving the bilateral cooperation between Ankara and Athens’ center-right, pro-U. S. government. Relations between the two countries have improved since the earthquake and the Greek effort to contribute humanitarian support.
Armenia. Recent negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan could improve regional stability and decrease the influence of Iran and Russia, which would be beneficial to Turkey, Europe, and the US. S.
The Middle East. Turkey has a mixed bag of relations with Israel and the Arab states. For example, the governments of Egypt and Turkey have not communicated directly with one another in many years, and their relationship is at an all-time low. It is in U. S. interests for more harmonious relations. The postelection prospects for more outreach from Ankara seem promising. Regional analyst James Dorsey noted that, after years of strained relations, Saudi and Emirati support for Mr. Erdogan was quickly displayed after the Turkish leader’s reelection.
Africa. While U. S. Notwithstanding the fact that Turkish interests do not always align with those of the continent, Ankara is committed to playing a more active role in Africa. The U. S. Europe and Turkey are keen to lessen China’s and Russia’s detrimental influence, particularly in North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The most likely future scenario is that U. S. and Turkish relations will remain stable in the near term. Heading into national elections in the U. S. Foreign policy is less significant in an environment where the Biden administration does not want to add new conflicts with allies. Though some Congressmen still view Turkey as a divisive issue, it is doubtful that either party’s leadership would desire a significant dispute over U.S. S. S. -Turkish relations.
One possible wild card could be migration if Turkey triggered a major crisis with Europe.
Stable relations obviously depend on Sweden joining NATO, Turkey receiving F-16s, and Turkey being reintegrated into the F-35 fighter program. Beyond these expectations, signs of better relations could include more cooperation on Syria, Libya, or the countries of the Middle Corridor.
More on Turkey by Klaus Wölfer
“They’re NATO allies, and we’re going to continue to work together with them on lots of different issues of mutual concern,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters over the phone before the summit, adding, “at the same time, we’re committed to supporting democratic institutions, human rights, the rule of law [and] media freedom.” ” ” The U. S. administration was signaling major concerns with democratic backsliding under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkey was not the only friendly power singled out for criticism. Hungary, ruled by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, was not invited to the summit. The U. S. administration also consistently singled out Poland and Israel for criticism over judicial reforms and other issues.
People see the administration’s promotion of democracy as unfair and ineffective because of how unevenly it is implemented. Before Russia’s war on Ukraine, the administration attempted to improve relations with Russia. President Biden continues to seek to engage Iran. Even as competition with China increases, the U. S. wants to work constructively with Beijing on a range of issues, especially climate policy. But it mocked center-right democracies specifically because of policy differences that often reflected internal U.S. political sensitivities and an effort to strengthen relations with the EU by endorsing opposition to nations that Brussels has designated as targets for penalties
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however, the administration quickly discovered that politically isolating strategic allies was unworkable. Washington has had to work closely with Turkey and Poland. Given the continuous turmoil in Syria and Lebanon and the inability to reach an agreement on a new Iran Deal to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, the U.S. has had to renew close security cooperation with Israel.
In response, President Erdogan put aside his rejection of democracy and backed stabilizing relations with Washington and other Western-allied capitals during his successful reelection campaign on May 28, 2023. This helped on some of the most contentious issues. Examples include greenlighting Finland’s accession to NATO and brokering the Ukraine grain export compromise.
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