ISTANBUL—Since the beginning of its extensive invasion of Ukraine, Russia has given Turkey a lifeline of people and resources, and in exchange, it has reaped many rewards.
Over the past year, Russians have flooded into Turkey in droves. While some have come to avoid army conscription, bank their savings outside of the economy sanctioned by Russian President Vladimir Putin, or start businesses—1,363 new Russian companies were established in Turkey last year alone—many are purchasing real estate. According to Turkish government data, Russians are now the majority of applicants for residence permits at immigration offices located in Turkey’s largest cities, with over 155,000 of them being approved.
Turkey and its economy have mostly welcomed the newcomers and their cash. To an extent, they have—at least temporarily—changed the faces of Turkish cities, such as Istanbul or Antalya. Coffee shops are packed with Russian tourists, rent has skyrocketed but natural gas prices have stayed low, and occasionally a billboard will display Cyrillic text.
Turkey must strike a difficult but necessary balance between keeping its status as one of NATO’s largest members and fostering closer ties with Russia. Turkey is bordered by Syria on land, the Black Sea is its only oceanic entrance, and it shares a maritime border with Russia and Ukraine. It is situated between Iran and the West. Turkey has been able to support Russia’s battered economy as well as the Ukrainian military effort since the war started.
Turkey’s northern shores have been used to supply Ukraine with drones, which it has successfully used against Russian forces, and to help negotiate an agreement that permits the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports. Turkey has increased its purchases of Russian oil and gas at the same time, helping to partially shield Moscow from punitive sanctions.
The devil’s bargain, in the opinion of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was created out of his own geopolitical, political, and economic needs. Erdogan faces perhaps his most challenging election in May, and Russian support might just help carry him through.
“It’s a marriage of convenience, Russia and Turkey,” senior fellow Alper Coskun of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said. It certainly isn’t an easy marriage.
When Turkey shot down a Russian jet in 2015 for violating its airspace in southeast Turkey near the Syrian border, relations between the two countries deteriorated. In June 2016, Erdogan apologized and signaled readiness to restore ties. A month later, Russia offered help to Erdogan after a failed coup attempt in Turkey.
To Turkey, Russia offers an opportunity, but it also poses a threat. Turkey is not interested in an assertive Russia occupying coastal cities in Ukraine, nor is it interested in the emergence of a Kurdish statelet in northern Syria. While Turkey asserts that the Kurdish militias have close ties to the militant-political Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU, the US has been providing support to Kurdish fighters in northern Syria since 2014. Russia has been on the other end in Syria, supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
However, independent Moscow-based Russia expert Kerim Has stated that Turkey’s backing of Ukraine will not change the course of the conflict. “Military aid is certainly there, and it shouldn’t be underestimated, but it’s not crossing Moscow’s red lines. Turkey is not sending tanks or fighter jets. It’s at a tolerable level for the Kremlin. ”.
Russia has provided massive capital inflows to Turkey to support its economy, particularly since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It has even ignored Ankara’s meagre military support for Kyiv. The two nations are now in talks over a possible gas discount, and Turkey has requested that Russia delay gas payments until 2024 in exchange for at least some short-term financial relief.
It’s still a two-way street. For the isolated and sanctioned Kremlin, Turkey has become a financial safe haven. An estimated $70 billion worth of trade was conducted between the two nations last year, with Turkey ranking among Russia’s top trading partners. Hurriyet Daily News, a Turkish newspaper, said that hundreds of Western businesses are considering setting up offices in Turkey in order to evade sanctions and carry on with business with Russia.
“Putin doesn’t really have any other choice, so it’s a pragmatic approach,” Has said. Putin has no better partner to work with in Turkey or elsewhere than Erdogan, even though the latter isn’t always a dependable ally for Moscow: all other candidates are more pro-Western leaders. ”.
For Turkey, pragmatism rules too. Turkey aligns itself with the Western bloc geographically and militarily, and it has been a crucial ally of the West; however, economically, Turkey is forced to collaborate with Russia. “If Russia cuts gas to Turkey, it would be a disaster,” Has said. Likewise, because of how many loans Turkey has taken from European banks, if the Turkish economy collapses, European banks will also suffer. ”.
Still, like all marriages—of convenience or otherwise—there is plenty of history and potential friction on the horizon. Erdogan acknowledges that Russia exists in the Black Sea region, particularly in light of the US military and economic absence. “Erdogan has adapted to this: the U. S. ’s shifting focus away from the Black Sea region,” said Muhammet Kocak, an Ankara-based independent foreign affairs analyst.
Still, historic animosities and long-term rivalry could return to trump today’s immediate economic and political symbiosis, he said.
“Turkey has addressed its immediate security issues, primarily related to Syria, as a result of its partnership with Russia, but it also values its NATO membership and security alliance with the West,” Kocak continued. “In the long run, Russia remains a historic competitor and threat to Turkey’s security. These dynamics likely outweigh the economic advantages. ”.
Turkey and Russia, two powerful Eurasian nations, have a long and complex history marked by both cooperation and conflict Their relationship has been shaped by geopolitical rivalries, cultural exchanges, and economic interdependence, making it a dynamic and ever-evolving one.
A Historical Overview: From Rivalry to Partnership
For centuries, Russia and Turkey have been locked in a complex dance of competition and cooperation. The Ottoman Empire, the predecessor of modern-day Turkey, and the Russian Empire clashed over control of the Black Sea and the Caucasus region, leading to numerous wars and territorial disputes.
However, the 20th century witnessed a shift in their relationship. Following the Russian Revolution and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the Soviet Union and Turkey established diplomatic relations in 1925. Despite ideological differences the two countries found common ground in their opposition to Western powers and their desire to maintain regional stability.
During the Cold War, Turkey became a key NATO ally, while the Soviet Union supported communist regimes in Eastern Europe Despite their opposing alliances, Turkey and the Soviet Union maintained economic and cultural ties
The Post-Cold War Era: A Rollercoaster of Relations
With the end of the Cold War, Turkey and Russia entered a new era of relations. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to the emergence of several independent states in Central Asia, creating new opportunities for cooperation between Turkey and Russia.
However, the relationship has not been without its challenges. The Chechen Wars in the 1990s and the 2008 Russo-Georgian War strained relations between the two countries. Additionally, Turkey’s support for the Syrian opposition during the Syrian Civil War further complicated the situation.
Despite these tensions, Turkey and Russia have also found areas of cooperation. They have collaborated on energy projects, such as the TurkStream natural gas pipeline, and have worked together to address regional security issues.
Current State of Affairs: A Balancing Act
Today, the relationship between Turkey and Russia is characterized by a delicate balance between cooperation and competition.
On the one hand, Turkey and Russia have a strong economic partnership. Russia is Turkey’s largest trading partner, and the two countries have significant investments in each other’s economies. Additionally, Turkey relies heavily on Russia for energy imports.
On the other hand, Turkey and Russia continue to disagree on several regional issues. Turkey’s support for Ukraine and its opposition to Russia’s annexation of Crimea have created tensions. Additionally, Turkey’s close ties with the West and its aspirations to join the European Union are viewed with suspicion by Russia.
Looking Ahead: An Uncertain Future
The future of Turkey-Russia relations remains uncertain. The ongoing war in Ukraine, the global energy crisis, and the changing geopolitical landscape will all have a significant impact on their relationship.
If Turkey and Russia can manage their differences and find common ground, they have the potential to be major players in shaping the future of the Eurasian region. However, if their rivalry intensifies, it could lead to instability and conflict.
Only time will tell how this complex and dynamic relationship will unfold.
Turkey’s Erdogan says he trusts Russia ‘just as much as I trust the West’
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